Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 126:Efficiency wages, unemployment and macroeconomic policy

We provide empirical evidence from a number of European countries, which shows that unemployment and output are positively related when unemployment is low and inversely related when unemployment is high. We then construct a stylised macro-model with goods and labour market imperfections to show that the economy can rationally operate at an inefficient equilibrium in the neighbourhood of which the relationship between output and unemployment is positive. Our results suggest that circumstances exist in which market imperfections pose serious obstacles to the smooth working of expansionary and/or stabilization policies whose final aim is to improve welfare. KEYWORDS: Efficiency wages; effort supply; monopolistic competition; multiple equilibria; stability; fiscal multiplie

Productivity shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated endogenous growth model with human capital

Employing an endogenous growth model with human capital, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate fluctuations in output, consumption, investment and hours. Given the importance of accounting for both the dynamics and the trends in the data not captured by the theoretical growth model, we introduce a vector error correction model (VECM) of the measurement errors and estimate the model’s posterior density function using Bayesian methods. To contextualize our findings with those in the literature, we also assess whether the endogenous growth model or the standard real business cycle model better explains the observed variation in these aggregates. In addressing these issues we contribute to both the methods of analysis and the ongoing debate regarding the effects of innovations to productivity on macroeconomic activity.Endogenous growth, human capital, real business cycles, VEC Mmeasurement errors, Bayesian estimation

Estimated General Equilibrium Models for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy in the US and Europe

A persistent criticism of general equilibrium models of monetary policy which incorporate nominal inertia in the form of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) is that they fail to capture the extent of inflation inertia in the data. In this paper we derive a general equilibrium model based on optimising behaviour, but which also implies a data consistent NKPC. Specifically our model accounts for nominal inertia in both price and wage setting as well for habits in consumption. Using US and European data from 1970 to 1998 our parameter estimates reveal that (i) there is relatively more inertia in price-setting in Europe; (ii) wage contracts last longer in the US; (iii) the extent of backward-looking behaviour in price and wage setting is statistically significant but small in both the US and Europe; and (iv) significant habits effects are present in European consumption. Finally we simulate the effects of monetary policy and find that while the magnitude of the impact of monetary policy on the endogenous variables in our estimated models are similar to other econometric studies, the dynamic paths for variables display less inertia than is typically found in studies which use output gaps to proxy changes in marginal costs.

Estimated Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curves for the G7

In this paper we develop an open economy model of firms' pricing behaviour under imperfect competition. This allows us to introduce various terms of trade effects influencing the firm's pricing decision, in addition to labour costs which dominate most closed-economy specifications of the New Keynesian Phillips (NKPC) curve. Our analysis gives rise to a hybrid open economy NKPC which nests existing closed and open economy specifications adopted in empirical work. We estimate this specification for the G7 economies and find that the US, UK and Canada typically enjoy less inertia in price setting than the European G7 economies and Japan and that these estimates are both plausible and in line with survey evidence. We also find that the proportion of firms which use simple backward-looking rules of thumb in price setting is greater when the frequency of price change is smaller. Finally there is evidence of significant asymmetries in price setting amongst EMU members.

Fear of Model Misspecification and the Robustness Premium

Robust decision making implies welfare costs or robustness premia when the approximating model is the true data generating process. To examine the importance of these premia at the aggregate level we employ a simple two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with human capital and introduce an additional form of precautionary behavior. The latter arises from the robust decision maker’s ability to reduce the effects of model misspecification through allocating time and existing human capital to this end. We find that the extent of the robustness premia critically depends on the productivity of time relative to that of human capital. When the relative efficiency of time is low, despite transitory welfare costs, there are gains from following robust policies in the long-run. In contrast, high relative productivity of time implies misallocation costs that remain even in the long-run. Finally, depending on the technology used to reduce model uncertainty, we find that while increasing the fear of model misspecification leads to a net increase in precautionary behavior, investment and output can fall.robustness premium, model misspecification, precautionary behavior

Do Excessive Wage Increases Raise Imports? Theory and Evidence

This paper uses a model of trade in vertically differentiated products to examine the effects of “excessive wage” increases (i.e. above productivity) on the volume of commodity imports. The model predicts that for commodities, in which the country has comparative advantage in high quality varieties, an increase in “excessive wages” may result in a decrease in the volume of imports. The empirical validity of the model's predictions is demonstrated with the use of disaggregated Japanese import data for the period 1967-95. We also find that the aggregate volume of Japanese imports is not responsive to "excessive wage" changes.